Today’s Enrollment Numbers Tell a Story—What Will Your Story Be? 

Key Takeaways: 

• The stories behind the most recent college and university enrollment numbers offer a variety of different lessons that can inform your future class-building initiatives. 
• Institutions need to reflect on those lessons and begin thinking about how to craft their own unique success stories. 
• Although freshman enrollment declined overall on a year-over-year basis, undergraduate and graduate enrollment rates increased. 
• Enrollment also grew among dual-enrollment students, adult learners, and individuals in short-term programs. 
• Liaison’s wide range of innovative recruitment and enrollment technologies and services designed exclusively for higher education can help your institution author a plan for long-term success. 

All books have a beginning, middle and end. They don’t change. We all start with page 1, read the same words, and experience the same characters. Numbers also tell a story. However, the way we choose to tell that story is different.  

NSC’s Research Center recently released the latest enrollment trends for Fall ’24. Here’s a story I want to share:  

Undergraduate and graduate enrollments are up on a year-over-year (YoY) basis. Undergrad increased 3%, graduate went up 2.1%, and total enrollment rose 2.9%.  

This growth is NOT attributable to traditionally aged students. Freshman enrollment declined 5% YoY, with public four-year institutions recording a decline of 8.5% and private four-year colleges and universities reporting a 6.5% drop. The smallest decline in freshman enrollment occurred at community colleges and public PABs (primarily associate degree granting baccalaureate institutions), which collectively reported a 0.4% decrease.  

Some may tell the story that the freshman decline is a result of last year’s FAFSA simplification (or rather de-simplification) experience. While that may be true for some, it’s not the full story. If FAFSA is the reason, then shouldn’t enrollment declines be seen across all student types? They’re not. For example: 

• Shorter-term programs (i.e. associates, certificates) grew rapidly, at a 7.3% rate. 
• Dual enrollment was up 7.2% YoY. (Since Fall 2022, dual enrollment has risen 17.1% at public two-year institutions, 9.5% at PABs, 15.5% at public four-year institutions, and 22.9% at private four-year nonprofit institutions.) 
• Enrollment of adult learners rose 10.5% among first-time students aged 21–24 and 20% among those aged 25–29. 

Looking Beyond the Demographic Cliff 

We’ve talked about the demographic cliff for what feels like an eternity: Growing competition. Declining access to names. Search conversions at an all-time low. That is the story some tell. So why are certain colleges seeing record-breaking incoming classes?  

One reason is that they’ve re-thought their recruitment strategy. Gone are the days of waiting for students to engage with your campus. Successful recruitment leaders know that the only approach to effectively recruit and retain students involves being proactive, understanding the individual, and reaching out to them with personalized messaging that resonates.  

Yet some colleges are telling the story that they’ve been unable to recover since the pandemic. That is the way the story ends with many, and the writing is on the wall for those still trying to keep their heads above water. According to IPEDS, 40 unique institutions (excluding branches) closed their doors in the 2023-24 academic year alone.  

Changing Perceptions of Value 

While most readers of this blog maintain the belief that higher education is for everyone, and many double down on the assertion that it is an essential rite of passage, that’s no longer the status quo. In fact, many large corporations have opened their doors to non-degree earners. For example: 

• In 2021, IBM stripped its bachelor’s degree requirement for more than half of its U.S. job openings.  
• Other large corporations including Google, Dell, and Bank of America have followed suit.  
• An estimated 1.4 million jobs are predicted to open to non-degree workers within the next 4-5 years. 

The truth is, there’s no single right answer about how to tell the story you want to tell. What matters is what your institution chooses to do. Those that continue to treat their college as a book that remains unchanged on the shelf are those that will collect dust. Those that choose to re-write their unread pages have an opportunity to change their ending.  

With a suite of solutions designed to offset market disruption and assist in re-writing your institution’s strategy, Liaison can act as an editor-in-chief or ghost writer by adapting your story to address today’s new norms. 

1. Liaison’s Centralized Application Services (CAS) platforms allow colleges and universities to shift their efforts towards graduate enrollment as a revenue driver while expanding their market presence and reach. 
2. Our Enrollment Marketing services help institutions recruit and retain the right students the right way at the right time. 
3. The Othot Enrollment AI-driven analytics solution allows colleges and universities to establish a realistic understanding of their enrollment initiatives and how to maintain their NTR and academic profile while also making the most efficient use of their spend, resources, and personnel.  
4. The Othot Student Success solution empowers colleges and universities to improve student retention and enhance annual recurring revenue (ARR) by modeling the effect of tuition changes and cutting/adding programs to offset declines in enrollment revenue. 
5. Intelligent Names makes it possible to finetune your stop-out and transfer student focus—and fuel your marketing and outreach campaigns—by creating deeper profiles for existing prospects and cultivating new high-intent adult degree seekers. There’s a lot of opportunity here. Remember, the SCNC (some credit, no credential) population is currently 41 million and counting! (What demographic cliff?) 

I leave readers with one question and some food for thought. How will you tell your story? Regardless of the details, Liaison can help you make it a success. 

About the Author

Kelsi Harris‘s professional career started over 12 years ago in management & leadership. In 2017, she incorporated her prior skillset and experience when she transitioned into higher education technology consulting and sales where she remains today. Recognized as a trusted advisor and industry expert in EdTech and higher education, Kelsi is dedicated to efficiently diagnosing, prescribing and treating colleges with best-fit solutions based on their specific challenges, goals and key metrics they are measured against.